With so many huge numbers being thrown around, the question must be asked, what is the real cost of the bailout? The answer: $3,222.78 per US Citizen. The number was the result of research done by Noah Holcomb, a mechanical engineer whose professional work includes quality control and cost analysis in the manufacturing industry. The following is his analysis of the bailout, complete with sources to the original data:

What is the population Over 18?

To find this we need to use the data from previous united states census to calculate the population % of the past.

We can use this data to estimate the % of population over and/or under the age of 18

Data Type Year Subject Age Demographic Population Sources Referenced
Given 2000 total population ALL 281,421,906 Source 5
Calculated 2000 male population Under 18 37,059,196 Sources 6 to 9
Calculated 2000 female population Under 18 35,234,616 Source 10 to 13
Calculated 2000 total population Under 18 72,293,812 Source 5 to 13
Calculated 2000 total population Over 18 209,128,094 Source 5 to 13
Calculated 2000 population % Under 18 25.69% Source 5 to 13
Calculated 2000 population % Over 18 74.31% Source 5 to 13
Given 1990 total population ALL 248,709,873 Source 14
Calculated 1990 total population Under 18 63,604,432 Source 15 to 26
Calculated 1990 Total Population Over 18 185,105,441 Source 14 to 26
Calculated 1990 population % Under 18 25.57% Source 14 to 26
Calculated 1990 population % Over 18 74.43% Source 14 to 26

% of the population under 18 has remained almost the same, so lets assume the current population % under 18 is at the 2000 level

Data Type Year Subject Age Demographic Population Sources Referenced
Given 2008 current 2008 population ALL 305,262,227 Source 2
Assumed 2008 population % Under 18 25.69% Source 5 to 26
Assumed 2008 population % Over 18 74.31% Source 5 to 26
Estimated 2008 total population Under 18 78,418,096.03 Source 2, Source 5 to 26
Estimated 2008 total population Over 18 226,844,130.97 Source 2, Source 5 to 26

Estimate Illegal Population

Let’s assume the illegal population distribution by age is the same as found in the legal population

Data Type Year Subject Age Demographic Population Sources Referenced
Given 2006 illegal population ALL 11,550,000 Source 3
Given 2000 illegal population ALL 8,500,000 Source 4
Calculated 2000-2006 6 year growth % ALL 35.88% Source 3, 4
Calculated 2000-2006 yearly growth % ALL 5.98% Source 3, 4
Estimated 2007 total illegal population ALL 12,240,735.29 Source 3, 4
Estimated 2008 total illegal population ALL 12,972,779.27 Source 3, 4
Assumed 2008 illegal population % Under 18 25.69% Source 5 to 26
Assumed 2008 illegal population % Under 18 74.31% Source 5 to 26
Estimated 2008 total illegal population Under 18 3,332,546.78 Source 3 to 26
Estimated 2009 total illegal population Over 18 9,640,232.49 Source 3 to 26

Overall legal population of the United states by age demographic

Data Type Year Subject Age Demographic Population Sources Referenced
Estimated 2008 legal population ALL 292,289,448 Source 2 to 26
Estimated 2008 legal population Under 18 75,085,549.25 Source 2 to 26
Estimated 2008 legal population Over 18 217,203,898.48 Source 2 to 28

Total Cost of the Bailout per Citizen

Bailout Cost: $700,000,000,000.00
Legal U.S Citizens over 18 217,203,898.48
$/citizen $3,222.78

Sources

Source # Source Date Population
1 CIA-Population 2007 Jul-07 301,139,947
2 U.S. Census Bureau – Current Population 09/25/08 at 8:56 GMT 305,262,227
3 Department of Homeland Security – Illegal Population 2006 11,550,000
4 Department of Homeland Security – Illegal Population 2000 8,500,000
5 U.S. Census Bureau – Population 2000 2000 281,421,906
6 U.S. Census Bureau – Male population under 5 2000 9,810,733
7 U.S. Census Bureau – Male population 5 to 9 2000 10,523,277
8 U.S. Census Bureau – Male population 10 to 14 2000 10,520,197
9 U.S. Census Bureau – Male population 15 to 17 2000 6,204,989
10 U.S. Census Bureau – Female population under 5 2000 9,365,065
11 U.S. Census Bureau – Female population 5 to 9 2000 10,026,228
12 U.S. Census Bureau – Female population 10 to 14 2000 10,007,875
13 U.S. Census Bureau – Female population 15 to 17 2000 5,835,448
14 U.S. Census Bureau – Total 1990 Population 1990 248,709,873
15 U.S. Census Bureau – Population Under 1 year 1990 3,217,312
16 U.S. Census Bureau – Population 1 to 2 years 1990 7,764,147
17 U.S. Census Bureau – Population 3 to 4 years 1990 7,372,984
18 U.S. Census Bureau – Population 5 years 1990 3,689,533
19 U.S. Census Bureau – Population 6 years 1990 3,577,632
20 U.S. Census Bureau – Population 7 to 9 years 1990 10,832,014
21 U.S. Census Bureau – Population 10 to 11 years 1990 7,108,692
22 U.S. Census Bureau – Population 12 to 13 years 1990 6,762,450
23 U.S. Census Bureau – Population 14 years 1990 3,243,107
24 U.S. Census Bureau – Population 15 years 1990 3,321,609
25 U.S. Census Bureau – Population 16 years 1990 3,304,890
26 U.S. Census Bureau – Population 17 years 1990 3,410,062
  • Note for source #2, this number is based on the results of projected growth statistics. Please follow the link to verify if desired

Comments

Dave 2010-02-03

Great statistics! How much does it cost per current tax paying citizen? With the estimated 2nd stimulis, how much is that going to set us back? Give it to the legal, over 18, current tax paying citizens.

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